Daily Market AnalysisThe Daily Market Analysis for Futures and Forex is something I post for all members by 6am New York time for any client that has purchased the Gold, Silver, Platinum or Diamond packages.  It is to help everyone follow the indicators and what is expected in the market that day.  However, for those that want to see how the indicators performed, you can review the daily analysis for the futures and forex charts and see how well the indicators could tell where price would go.

Daily Market Analysis for: Monday, October 5, 2015

Abbreviations: CD = Congestion Dot; ATR = Average True Range Stop; MP = ADX Magenta Peak; RB = Reversal Bar; WB = Wide Bar

AUDUSD:

  • 1440
    • Is heading towards ATR above price at .7120
  • 720
    • Heading to CD at .7148
  • 180
    • Up
  • 45
    • Up

Analysis:

No overbought conditions so longs only but remember we do have overhead resistance within 40 ticks of where price is currently.

EURJPY

  • 1440
    • Heading up into a strong resistance area and ATR at 135.87
  • 720
    • At a weekly resistance area and ATR at 135.30 (above price)
  • 180
    • Up; ADX at 56.73 (must break this 135.30 area as it is a weekly resistance area)
  • 45
    • At R2, and ADX at 58.65

Analysis:

I would wait on the 45 minute to make a magenta peak and try to trade it back to at 134.68. Trying to go long right now is not a good idea as it can easily reverse at these area. If it does retrace, breaks thru the weekly and 720 ATR, then we may have more upside potential. I would be very cautious right now.

EURUSD

  • 1440
    • Price is heading back to ATR at 1.1335 for a retest
  • 720
    • Heading back to retest ATR again at 1.1277
  • 180
    • Heading back to test high made after wide bar
  • 45
    • The daily support area has held and it is going back to test the high made on Friday.

Analysis:

Wait and see if it breaks the ATR on 720 and 1440. Right now there is not enough room to go out of the money. You could do futures side but to me the reward is not worth the effort.

USDJPY

  • 1440
    • RB on last bar and heading up to ATR at 121.27
  • 720
    • RB and heading up to 121.62
  • 180
    • At ATR at 120.26
  • 45
    • Congestion Zone: CD at 120.19 and ATR at 119.86. Price is at CD. I would expect retracement but the volume is low and price isn’t moving.

Analysis:

I would expect retracement to ATR on 45 minute (equates to a bounce down off ATR on 180) but the volume is low and price isn’t moving. Wait and let a trade develop clearly before entering. I believe it is going to be to the upside but we need to make sure buyers can break thru the ATR on the 180.

Crude:

  • 1440
    • ATR at 43.38 and price is moving up
  • 720
    • Price is at ATR at 46.32 (above) with a previous RB. May break this ATR
  • 180
    • Trying to break ATR and CD at 46.69. Bar ends at 6am and we need to see if the break holds
  • 45
    • WB up previously and price is at a previous resistance level.

Analysis:

Wait and see if 180 is broke. Looks like it may be going to go up but with price at ATR on both 180 and 720, now is not the time for a long.

Gold

  • 1440
    • Friday gave us a big RB but I think it will need to retrace some (markets don’t like these types of bars). CD at 1098.1 and ATR at 1149.2
  • 720
    • WB up on Friday, we may get a retracement. CD at 1145.9, ATR at 1107.1
  • 180
    • MP with a retracement to 1125.4 or daily support at 1127.5.
  • 45
    • Just retested ATR and SLOWLY going down.

Analysis:

I think we will see a retracement down to 1127.5 (daily support area) and then need to read the volume there. We do have a CD on 45 at 1131.7 that could stop price – we need to read volume at these areas and right now it is just no volume there.

NQ

  • 1440
    • Moving up with nothing in way until it gets to 4319, which coincides with multiple resistance areas and the ATR.
  • 720
    • Moving up with nothing in the way until 4323 (multiple resistance areas there)
  • 180
    • Moving up with nothing in the way until price gets to 4323
  • 45
    • The only thing in the way of price reaching 4323 is a R1 line at 4301

Analysis:

Sweet spot trading from 4278 to 4323 as it stands right now. The only area to watch for is the 4301 R1 area. This is where I would be looking for a cheap weekly option as this is an area where there is potential for a 40 point move to the upside.

YM

  • 1440
    • RB to upside; ATR and multiple resistance area at 16534 to 16600
  • 720
    • RB to upside; CD at 16606 above price
  • 180
    • Nothing in the way until 16600
  • 45
    • Moving up with no resistance until R1 at 16522 and double resistance around 16600, including a monthly area at 16600.

Analysis:

Sweet spot trading from 16423 to at least 16522, then 16600. Possible cheap weekly option may be available for this to the upside. A potential 200 point minimum move would be expected.


Daily Market Analysis for: Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Abbreviations: CD = Congestion Dot; ATR = Average True Range Stop; MP = ADX Magenta Peak; RB = Reversal Bar; WB = Wide Bar

AUDUSD:

  • 1440
    • At ATR (.7125)
  • 720
    • Near CD at .7148
  • 180
    • Up
  • 45
    • Up

Analysis:

We did get to ATR on 1440 (notice it took until 1:15 am this morning to complete the move, which is why with binaries at 20 pip intervals, I opted not to take any on it time decay and we could only go out as far as 11pm yesterday). With it being so close to the CD and ATR, I suspect we may see a retracement unless they muster enough buyers to break the ATR on the 1440.

EURJPY

  • 1440
    • Hit ATR but closed in lower portion of bar.
  • 720
    • At a weekly resistance area and formed a congestion area. CD at 136.29 and ATR at 133.48. Looks like it may be forming RB to upside to test the CD.
  • 180
    • MP played out yesterday (prior to live trading room opening) and is not bouncing off the ATR
  • 45
    • Currently at ATR above price but trying to flip it and the CD is appearing at 135.08

Analysis:

I think price will get to the CD on the 45 minute and may retrace to retest ATR or support areas (green lines at 134.68 and 134.88). If diverging selling volume occurs in these areas, longs only.

EURUSD

  • 1440
    • Moving sideways
  • 720
    • Flipped ATR to blue at 1.1111 and CD at 1.1373. To get to the CD it will need to break 2 daily areas of resistance and 3 lines from the 180 minute.
  • 180
    • Congestion area from red ATR at 1.1247 down to CD at 1.1132. Heading back to retest ATR now.
  • 45
    • Congestion zone with CD above at 1.1217 and ATR below at 1.1176.

Analysis:

No setups

USDJPY

  • 1440
    • Struggling at the daily resistance line at 120.44
  • 720
    • Struggling at the daily resistance line at 120.44
  • 180
    • Congestion Zone: CD above at 120.60 and ATR below at 120.01
  • 45
    • Red ATR at 120.51 and price is trying to retest it now with no buying coming in

Analysis:

Could do a cheap binary option to downside, out of money, for 3pm expiration.

Crude:

  • 1440
    • ATR at 43.35 and price is going nowhere
  • 720
    • Price is at ATR at 46.32 (above) the 180 minute support line at 45.60 seems to be holding price up but it is not moving.
  • 180
    • Broke thru CD and has retested the ATR at 45.60 with RB to upside.
  • 45
    • CD formed below price at 45.90 and price is moving up to ATR at 46.44. Buyers need to come in and the 46.20 area needs to hold price up.

Analysis:

Looks like it will go up but the 46.20 has to act as support instead of resistance and it will need to break the 46.44 area. Maybe a spread later this morning.

Gold

  • 1440
    • CD at 1098.1 and ATR at 1149.2 Price really didn’t move much yesterday.
  • 720
    • CD at 1145.9, ATR at 1109.6. Looks like price will test the 1145.9 area.
  • 180
    • The 1135 line looks like it may be holding price up.
  • 45
    • At Pivot line with no sellers, after a MP. Has not completed the retracement to the ATR at 1134.7 as the Pivot Line at 1135.8 (coincides with Green line) seems to be holding it up.

Analysis:

We may go up to test the CD on the 720 1145.9

NQ

  • 1440
    • Price at ATR and high level of resistance (multiple areas)
  • 720
    • At CD at 4323 and has multiple areas of resistance to overcome here.
  • 180
    • Retracing off the Resistance areas with ATR at 4265.75
  • 45
    • Congestion Zone with ATR above at 4307.75 and CD at 4287.75, with no buying coming in

Analysis:

I believe it may go back down and test the 4384 area as no buyers are coming in on 45 minute.

YM

  • 1440
    • Broke ATR. CD at 16941 and ATR at 15826.
  • 720
    • CD at 16606 was violated and I would anticipate at least a retest of the ATR at 16026 right now.
  • 180
    • MP but the 16600 seems to be holding price up.
  • 45
    • Congestion area with ATR at 16663 and CD at 16578.

Analysis:

I believe it will come back and test the 16578 area for support or complete the retracement for the 180 (ATR at 16472)

 


 

Daily Market Analysis for: Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Abbreviations: CD = Congestion Dot; ATR = Average True Range Stop; MP = ADX Magenta Peak; RB = Reversal Bar; WB = Wide Bar

AUDUSD:

  • 1440
    • Flipped ATR and at CD at .7225
  • 720
    • UP
  • 180
    • Up
  • 45
    • Up, ADX at 69.74

Analysis:

With ADX being at 69.74, it can go up more, but then we will get a retracement so I would enter either after the retracement or give it enough time to work upwards again.

EURJPY

  • 1440
    • Hit ATR and bouncing down
  • 720
    • At a weekly resistance area and formed a congestion area. CD at 136.29 and ATR at 133.48.
  • 180
    • At ATR at 134.75, may break ATR
  • 45
    • Moving down but trying to form a MP but it’s pretty flat

Analysis:

Wait and see if the 180 breaks the ATR and then possible shorts. If 45 MP comes in (not flat) then longs back to ATR.

EURUSD

  • 1440
    • Moving sideways
  • 720
    • Flipped ATR to blue, hit a daily resistance area and now moving more down than up..
  • 180
    • Flipped ATR, moved up, made MP and has went back to ATR.
  • 45
    • Congestion zone with CD below at 1.1220 and ATR at 1.1272. May test CD.

Analysis:

No setups

USDJPY

  • 1440
    • Moving down from daily resistance at 120.44
  • 720
    • Moving down at daily resistance line at 120.44
  • 180
    • Moving down
  • 45
    • Moving down

Analysis:

Could do a cheap binary option to downside, out of money, for 3pm expiration.

 


 

Daily Market Analysis for: Thursday, October 08, 2015

Abbreviations: CD = Congestion Dot; ATR = Average True Range Stop; MP = ADX Magenta Peak; RB = Reversal Bar; WB = Wide Bar

AUDUSD:

  • 1440
    • Moving down off CD
  • 720
    • MP peak coming in could push price down to .0746 (ATR currently)
  • 180
    • At ATR after MP
  • 45
    • Just retested ATR and Pivot line on diverging buying volume

Analysis:

Should go down off the ATR on the 45 minute but it can bounce off ATR on 180. Shorts are the best trades but wait for the 3 and 45 to align.

EURJPY

  • 1440
    • ATR Above Price
  • 720
    • At a weekly resistance area and formed a congestion area. CD at 136.29 and ATR at 133.48.
  • 180
    • Bouncing off ATR to upside weekly resistance area again
  • 45
    • Retested Pivot line after breaking and is now trying to break through the weekly area of resistance.

Analysis:

I think price will get to the 135.60 and 135.80 area but there is heavy resistance there. Would not trade unless price gets to these area on diverging selling volume (short trades).

EURUSD

  • 1440
    • Moving up to ATR at 1.1335
  • 720
    • Reaching up to CD at 1.1375
  • 180
    • Wide Bar up and at a daily resistance area but it may break through. Should retest for support.
  • 45
    • Retested the Daily support area and reaching up for 1.1324.

Analysis:

Potential long up to 1.1324 (can’t take spreads on that) and then may reverse so be careful there.

USDJPY

  • 1440
    • Moving down from daily resistance at 120.44
  • 720
    • Moving down at daily resistance line at 120.44
  • 180
    • Moving down
  • 45
    • Moving down

Analysis:

Sweet spot to downside is between 119.70 and 119.20. Could potentially do a short side spread but that is only about 50 ticks so don’t risk a lot.

Crude:

  • 1440
    • Found resistance at Monthly Resistance area
  • 720
    • Found resistance at Monthly area and moving back down to 47.
  • 180
    • Congestion Area to downside: ATR at 49.22 and CD at 47.03
  • 45
    • Moving down to potential S1 line at 47.56 and CD at 47.03

Analysis:

Shorts only until it finds an area that would support an upmove.

Gold

  • 1440
    • At ATR on 1440.
  • 720
    • At both daily and 720 resistance area.
  • 180
    • At ATR now but has not broken through it.
  • 45
    • Retracement to ATR after MP; now moving down.

Analysis:

Shorts only after ATR on 180 is flipped.

NQ

  • 1440
    • Flipped ATR but has a lot of resistance (multiple areas) overhead
  • 720
    • At CD at 4323 and has multiple areas of resistance to overcome here.
  • 180
    • At daily resistance area now.
  • 45
    • MP with retracement to 4314. Analyze volume at ATR.

Analysis:

Let retracement complete and analyze volume. Could go down to 4250 but need retracement to ATR to complete so we can analyze volume.

YM

  • 1440
    • 720 Resistance area is holding.
  • 720
    • Reached prior CD area but is not breaking it.
  • 180
    • Completed MP retracement overnight.
  • 45
    • MP off ADX (red line) and retracing back to ATR at 16769. Analyze volume at ATR.

Analysis:

Wait for retracement to ATR and analyze volume there.